Supply chain issues, unprecedented price increases and electric trucks are just a few of the unexpected trends troubling the auto industry right now. Another is the pre-order or reservation system for new cars. Buyers can pre-order a car with their desired specs from the manufacturer, track its custom build, and then pick it up from a local dealership. This model was pioneered by Tesla and Rivian, but is now being adopted by mainstream OEMs such as Ford for its next power line. We discuss more about the pros and cons of the pre-order model here.

Among EV enthusiasts, we’ve heard of many people who have booked several upcoming vehicles because they’re all so exciting. In our own team, we have overlapping truck reservations for the Rivian R1T, Tesla Cybertruck and Ford F-150 Lightning, as well as car reservations for the Volkswagen ID.4 / Hyundai Ioniq 5. But we are scientists and we need data to see how frequent these overlaps are.

Some interesting stories are emerging from the data, and we’ll be sure to update them as we get more data points and some of these vehicles start hitting the road:

Refundable reservation deposits make it easier to keep options open. A buyer has pre-ordered the GMC Hummer EV, a BMW iX, the Chevrolet Silverado, the Nissan Ariya and the VW ID.4, but only plans to take delivery of the BMW. How common is this kind of booking frenzy? It depends on the vehicle, with more buyers overlapping reservations for cars that have longer wait times.

Truck buyers are hedging their bets with multiple bookings. There’s clearly a lot of over-ordering here, as no one really knows who’s actually going to deliver these as-yet-untested trucks. 100% of Ford F-150 and Chevrolet Silverado reservations overlap with another vehicle reservation, and approximately 89% of Tesla Cybertruck reservations overlap with another truck order.

More electric car models allow buyers to be selective. While electric truck pre-orders tend to overlap on several new deals, there are more self-driving reservations for cars like the Subaru Solterra, Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5. These buyers want the car they have. ordered and reserve their place online to buy it.

Tesla brand loyalty runs deep. Recurrent found that many homes have opted for Tesla. About 50% of those who have booked both a Tesla Cybertruck and a Tesla car model plan to trade in the two.

Tesla reservations do not overlap with other brands. If you reserved a Ford F-150, Rivian, or Chevy Silverado, chances are you also reserved a Tesla Cybertruck. But, if you’re interested in one of the new non-truck options on this list, there’s hardly any overlap with the Tesla brand. There is a clear chasm between non-Tesla cars and Tesla reservations.

As we see, here is the booking landscape in June 2022:

Do these observations correspond to your experience?

Liz is an atmospheric scientist working to decarbonize the transportation industry. His work with Recurrent demystifies electric vehicles and makes them accessible and transparent to a wider group of drivers. Liz loves talking about cutting-edge battery technology, energy storage, second battery life and politics, but as a New Yorker, Liz’s commute is the subway.